IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2#7 in the world · win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BIG#27 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageG2 ban
50%56%
G2 · 6 mapsedge BIG +6%BIG · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
60%43%
G2 · 6 mapsedge G2 +17%BIG · 3 maps
Dust2BIG ban
42%60%
G2 · 8 mapsedge BIG +18%BIG · 1 map
OverpassG2 pick
71%43%
G2 · 3 mapsedge G2 +28%BIG · 3 maps
InfernoBIG pick
43%67%
G2 · 3 mapsedge BIG +24%BIG · 2 maps
NukeG2 ban
50%43%
G2 · 0 mapsedge G2 +7%BIG · 3 maps
AnubisBIG ban
40%40%
G2 · 1 mapnearly even +0%BIG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 remove Nuke
2. BanBIG remove Anubis
3. PickG2 take Overpass
4. PickBIG take Inferno
5. BanBIG remove Dust2
6. BanG2 remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (60% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:3
G2 25%BIG 75%
The model gave 75% on BIG — the map was taken by G2.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
G2 47%BIG 53%
The model gave 53% on BIG — the map was taken by G2.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 · 68%
Series resultG2 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2