IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2#7 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
40%75%
G2 · 11 mapsedge Spirit +35%Spirit · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
62%80%
G2 · 9 mapsedge Spirit +18%Spirit · 6 maps
AncientG2 ban
50%75%
G2 · 8 mapsedge Spirit +25%Spirit · 4 maps
OverpassG2 pick
70%33%
G2 · 6 mapsedge G2 +37%Spirit · 2 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
60%50%
G2 · 6 mapsedge G2 +10%Spirit · 0 maps
AnubisSpirit ban
33%67%
G2 · 2 mapsedge Spirit +34%Spirit · 2 maps
NukeG2 ban
50%67%
G2 · 0 mapsedge Spirit +17%Spirit · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 remove Nuke
2. BanSpirit remove Inferno
3. PickG2 take Overpass
4. PickSpirit take Dust2
5. BanSpirit remove Anubis
6. BanG2 remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (62% / 80%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct13:9
G2 84%Spirit 16%
The model gave 84% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
G2 16%Spirit 84%
The model gave 84% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Mirageprediction correct22:25
G2 29%Spirit 71%
The model gave 71% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 81%
Series resultSpirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3