IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiators#46 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HEROIC#26 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageGaimin Gladiators ban
33%25%
Gaimin Gladiators · 2 mapsedge Gaimin Gladiators +8%HEROIC · 4 maps
Dust2HEROIC pick
40%50%
Gaimin Gladiators · 1 mapedge HEROIC +10%HEROIC · 4 maps
InfernoHEROIC ban
50%25%
Gaimin Gladiators · 0 mapsedge Gaimin Gladiators +25%HEROIC · 4 maps
NukeHEROIC ban
40%43%
Gaimin Gladiators · 1 mapnearly even -3%HEROIC · 3 maps
OverpassGaimin Gladiators pick
33%60%
Gaimin Gladiators · 2 mapsedge HEROIC +27%HEROIC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGaimin Gladiators remove Mirage
2. BanHEROIC remove Inferno
3. PickGaimin Gladiators take Overpass
4. PickHEROIC take Dust2
5. BanHEROIC remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
Gaimin Gladiators 37%HEROIC 63%
The model gave 63% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Infernoprediction missed6:13
Gaimin Gladiators 77%HEROIC 23%
The model gave 77% on Gaimin Gladiators — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 82%
Series resultHEROIC 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2