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PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 South America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#88 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Back to Backwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Back to Back pick
46%57%
Galorys · 9 mapsedge Back to Back +11%Back to Back · 3 maps
AncientGalorys pick
80%50%
Galorys · 11 mapsedge Galorys +30%Back to Back · 0 maps
AnubisBack to Back ban
50%50%
Galorys · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Back to Back · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
78%57%
Galorys · 5 mapsedge Galorys +21%Back to Back · 3 maps
InfernoGalorys ban
38%50%
Galorys · 4 mapsedge Back to Back +12%Back to Back · 0 maps
MirageGalorys ban
50%43%
Galorys · 0 mapsedge Galorys +7%Back to Back · 3 maps
CacheBack to Back ban
50%50%
Galorys · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Back to Back · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Mirage
2. BanBack to Back remove Cache
3. PickGalorys take Ancient
4. PickBack to Back take Dust2
5. BanBack to Back remove Anubis
6. BanGalorys remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (78% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
Galorys 36%Back to Back 64%
The model gave 64% on Back to Back — the map was taken by Back to Back.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Galorys 82%Back to Back 18%
The model gave 82% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
Galorys 72%Back to Back 28%
The model gave 72% on Galorys — the map was taken by Back to Back.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 73%
Series resultBack to Back 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3