Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#68 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientElementals ban
81%50%
Galorys · 12 mapsedge Galorys +31%Elementals · 0 maps
Dust2Elementals pick
43%50%
Galorys · 10 mapsedge Elementals +7%Elementals · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
Galorys · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Elementals · 0 maps
NukeGalorys pick
70%50%
Galorys · 6 mapsedge Galorys +20%Elementals · 0 maps
InfernoGalorys ban
38%50%
Galorys · 4 mapsedge Elementals +12%Elementals · 0 maps
CacheGalorys ban
50%50%
Galorys · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Elementals · 0 maps
DefaultElementals ban
60%50%
Galorys · 1 mapedge Galorys +10%Elementals · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Inferno
2. BanElementals remove Ancient
3. PickGalorys take Nuke
4. PickElementals take Dust2
5. BanElementals remove Default
6. BanGalorys remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Galorys 83%Elementals 17%
The model gave 83% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Cacheprediction missed13:0
Galorys 47%Elementals 53%
The model gave 53% on Elementals — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 71%
Series resultGalorys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2