FERJEE In House Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#68 in the world · win 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGalorys pick
82%50%
Galorys · 18 mapsedge Galorys +32%Keyd Stars · 20 maps
Dust2possible decider
53%40%
Galorys · 13 mapsedge Galorys +13%Keyd Stars · 11 maps
MirageGalorys ban
50%52%
Galorys · 0 mapsnearly even -2%Keyd Stars · 17 maps
AnubisKeyd Stars pick
46%56%
Galorys · 9 mapsedge Keyd Stars +10%Keyd Stars · 5 maps
NukeKeyd Stars ban
64%36%
Galorys · 7 mapsedge Galorys +28%Keyd Stars · 7 maps
InfernoGalorys ban
33%36%
Galorys · 5 mapsnearly even -3%Keyd Stars · 7 maps
CacheKeyd Stars ban
60%40%
Galorys · 6 mapsedge Galorys +20%Keyd Stars · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Mirage
2. BanKeyd Stars remove Cache
3. PickGalorys take Ancient
4. PickKeyd Stars take Anubis
5. BanKeyd Stars remove Nuke
6. BanGalorys remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (53% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Galorys 60%Keyd Stars 40%
The model gave 60% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Galorys 84%Keyd Stars 16%
The model gave 84% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 72%
Series resultGalorys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2