BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#68 in the world · win 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Galorys ban
46%50%
Galorys · 9 mapsnearly even -4%MEIA NOITE · 0 maps
OverpassGalorys pick
54%50%
Galorys · 9 mapsnearly even +4%MEIA NOITE · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
58%50%
Galorys · 8 mapsedge Galorys +8%MEIA NOITE · 0 maps
NukeGalorys ban
50%50%
Galorys · 8 mapsnearly even +0%MEIA NOITE · 0 maps
MirageMEIA NOITE ban
67%50%
Galorys · 5 mapsedge Galorys +17%MEIA NOITE · 0 maps
AnubisMEIA NOITE ban
60%50%
Galorys · 1 mapedge Galorys +10%MEIA NOITE · 0 maps
CacheMEIA NOITE pick
40%50%
Galorys · 1 mapedge MEIA NOITE +10%MEIA NOITE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Dust2
2. BanMEIA NOITE remove Mirage
3. PickGalorys take Overpass
4. PickMEIA NOITE take Cache
5. BanMEIA NOITE remove Anubis
6. BanGalorys remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (58% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Galorys 43%MEIA NOITE 57%
The model gave 57% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
Galorys 61%MEIA NOITE 39%
The model gave 61% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
Galorys 50%MEIA NOITE 50%
The model gave 50% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 58%
Series resultGalorys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3