ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#68 in the world · win 2:1series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGalorys pick
79%37%
Galorys · 29 mapsedge Galorys +42%MEIA NOITE · 15 maps
Dust2Galorys ban
55%56%
Galorys · 18 mapsnearly even -1%MEIA NOITE · 14 maps
Nukepossible decider
64%50%
Galorys · 10 mapsedge Galorys +14%MEIA NOITE · 8 maps
CacheMEIA NOITE ban
50%33%
Galorys · 8 mapsedge Galorys +17%MEIA NOITE · 5 maps
InfernoGalorys ban
38%50%
Galorys · 9 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +12%MEIA NOITE · 4 maps
AnubisMEIA NOITE ban
47%50%
Galorys · 11 mapsnearly even -3%MEIA NOITE · 0 maps
DefaultMEIA NOITE pick
67%67%
Galorys · 2 mapsnearly even +0%MEIA NOITE · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Inferno
2. BanMEIA NOITE remove Anubis
3. PickGalorys take Ancient
4. PickMEIA NOITE take Default
5. BanMEIA NOITE remove Cache
6. BanGalorys remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (64% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Galorys 46%MEIA NOITE 54%
The model gave 54% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Galorys 88%MEIA NOITE 12%
The model gave 88% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Galorys 64%MEIA NOITE 36%
The model gave 64% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 82%
Series resultGalorys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3