ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#68 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Procyon#119 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Procyon ban
55%37%
Galorys · 16 mapsedge Galorys +18%Procyon · 15 maps
AncientGalorys pick
84%54%
Galorys · 21 mapedge Galorys +30%Procyon · 9 maps
InfernoProcyon pick
33%63%
Galorys · 5 mapsedge Procyon +30%Procyon · 12 maps
AnubisGalorys ban
46%64%
Galorys · 9 mapsedge Procyon +18%Procyon · 7 maps
Nukepossible decider
67%45%
Galorys · 8 mapsedge Galorys +22%Procyon · 7 maps
CacheProcyon ban
50%50%
Galorys · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Procyon · 0 maps
MirageGalorys ban
50%67%
Galorys · 0 mapsedge Procyon +17%Procyon · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Mirage
2. BanProcyon remove Cache
3. PickGalorys take Ancient
4. PickProcyon take Inferno
5. BanProcyon remove Dust2
6. BanGalorys remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (67% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
Galorys 21%Procyon 79%
The model gave 79% on Procyon — the map was taken by Procyon.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
Galorys 84%Procyon 16%
The model gave 84% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Dust2prediction missed5:13
Galorys 68%Procyon 32%
The model gave 68% on Galorys — the map was taken by Procyon.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 70%
Series resultProcyon 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3