FERJEE In House Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#68 in the world · win 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yawara#156 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGalorys pick
80%47%
Galorys · 16 mapsedge Galorys +33%Yawara · 11 maps
Dust2Yawara pick
50%50%
Galorys · 12 mapsnearly even +0%Yawara · 12 maps
MirageGalorys ban
50%48%
Galorys · 0 mapsnearly even +2%Yawara · 17 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%45%
Galorys · 8 mapsedge Galorys +5%Yawara · 7 maps
CacheYawara ban
63%22%
Galorys · 4 mapsedge Galorys +41%Yawara · 5 maps
InfernoGalorys ban
38%57%
Galorys · 4 mapsedge Yawara +19%Yawara · 3 maps
NukeYawara ban
64%50%
Galorys · 7 mapsedge Galorys +14%Yawara · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Mirage
2. BanYawara remove Nuke
3. PickGalorys take Ancient
4. PickYawara take Dust2
5. BanYawara remove Cache
6. BanGalorys remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
Galorys 52%Yawara 48%
The model gave 52% on Galorys — the map was taken by Yawara.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
Galorys 84%Yawara 16%
The model gave 84% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
Galorys 85%Yawara 15%
The model gave 85% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 65%
Series resultGalorys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3