ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
GameHunters#122 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ShindeN#85 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ShindeN ban
40%33%
GameHunters · 1 mapedge GameHunters +7%ShindeN · 2 maps
DefaultShindeN ban
50%50%
GameHunters · 2 mapsnearly even +0%ShindeN · 0 maps
InfernoGameHunters ban
50%50%
GameHunters · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ShindeN · 2 maps
NukeShindeN pick
60%60%
GameHunters · 1 mapnearly even +0%ShindeN · 1 map
MirageGameHunters pick
40%50%
GameHunters · 1 mapedge ShindeN +10%ShindeN · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGameHunters remove Inferno
2. BanShindeN remove Default
3. PickGameHunters take Mirage
4. PickShindeN take Nuke
5. BanShindeN remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
GameHunters 60%ShindeN 40%
The model gave 60% on GameHunters — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Nukeprediction correct3:13
GameHunters 47%ShindeN 53%
The model gave 53% on ShindeN — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Model check result
Model favoriteShindeN · 72%
Series resultShindeN 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2