Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegion#19 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Acend#125 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
46%61%
GamerLegion · 9 mapsedge Acend +15%Acend · 14 maps
InfernoGamerLegion pick
62%45%
GamerLegion · 9 mapsedge GamerLegion +17%Acend · 7 maps
AncientAcend ban
55%45%
GamerLegion · 7 mapsedge GamerLegion +10%Acend · 7 maps
Dust2GamerLegion ban
50%50%
GamerLegion · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Acend · 12 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%33%
GamerLegion · 4 mapsedge GamerLegion +17%Acend · 8 maps
NukeAcend ban
55%50%
GamerLegion · 7 mapsedge GamerLegion +5%Acend · 0 maps
DefaultGamerLegion ban
50%71%
GamerLegion · 0 mapsedge Acend +21%Acend · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGamerLegion remove Dust2
2. BanAcend remove Nuke
3. PickGamerLegion take Inferno
4. PickAcend take Mirage
5. BanAcend remove Ancient
6. BanGamerLegion remove Default
DeciderOverpass (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
GamerLegion 33%Acend 67%
The model gave 67% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
GamerLegion 62%Acend 38%
The model gave 62% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
GamerLegion 66%Acend 34%
The model gave 66% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 80%
Series resultAcend 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3