1win Private Club Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegion#19 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
K27#44 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageK27 pick
22%67%
GamerLegion · 5 mapsedge K27 +45%K27 · 17 maps
CacheGamerLegion pick
67%48%
GamerLegion · 2 mapsedge GamerLegion +19%K27 · 19 maps
NukeK27 ban
44%45%
GamerLegion · 5 mapsnearly even -1%K27 · 16 maps
AncientGamerLegion ban
44%53%
GamerLegion · 5 mapsedge K27 +9%K27 · 15 maps
Dust2K27 ban
50%42%
GamerLegion · 4 mapsedge GamerLegion +8%K27 · 8 maps
AnubisGamerLegion ban
50%64%
GamerLegion · 0 mapsedge K27 +14%K27 · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%60%
GamerLegion · 1 mapedge K27 +20%K27 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGamerLegion remove Anubis
2. BanK27 remove Dust2
3. PickGamerLegion take Cache
4. PickK27 take Mirage
5. BanK27 remove Nuke
6. BanGamerLegion remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (40% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
GamerLegion 71%K27 29%
The model gave 71% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
GamerLegion 46%K27 54%
The model gave 54% on K27 — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 56%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2