IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
GamerLegion#19 in the world · win 13:10series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 13:10
NRG#30 in the world · loss 10:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageGamerLegion ban
42%50%
GamerLegion · 8 mapsedge NRG +8%NRG · 2 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%50%
GamerLegion · 4 mapsedge GamerLegion +13%NRG · 4 maps
InfernoNRG ban
60%50%
GamerLegion · 6 mapsedge GamerLegion +10%NRG · 2 maps
NukeNRG ban
75%29%
GamerLegion · 4 mapsedge GamerLegion +46%NRG · 3 maps
OverpassGamerLegion ban
43%33%
GamerLegion · 3 mapsedge GamerLegion +10%NRG · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGamerLegion remove Overpass
2. BanNRG remove Nuke
3. BanGamerLegion remove Mirage
4. BanNRG remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
GamerLegion 60%NRG 40%
The model gave 60% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 74%
Series resultGamerLegion 13:10
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1