NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
aAa#132 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
63%38%
GenOne · 4 mapsedge GenOne +25%aAa · 4 maps
NukeGenOne ban
57%29%
GenOne · 3 mapsedge GenOne +28%aAa · 3 maps
AncientaAa ban
43%33%
GenOne · 3 mapsedge GenOne +10%aAa · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%40%
GenOne · 2 mapsedge GenOne +27%aAa · 1 map
OverpassaAa ban
40%40%
GenOne · 1 mapnearly even +0%aAa · 1 map
AnubisGenOne ban
50%60%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge aAa +10%aAa · 1 map
DefaultaAa pick
40%50%
GenOne · 1 mapedge aAa +10%aAa · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Anubis
2. BanaAa remove Overpass
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickaAa take Default
5. BanaAa remove Ancient
6. BanGenOne remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (67% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
GenOne 71%aAa 29%
The model gave 71% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
GenOne 63%aAa 37%
The model gave 63% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteaAa · 52%
Series resultGenOne 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2