BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · win 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
68%50%
GenOne · 18 mapsedge GenOne +18%ASTRAL · 6 maps
AncientASTRAL pick
46%63%
GenOne · 9 mapsedge ASTRAL +17%ASTRAL · 12 maps
Nukepossible decider
55%57%
GenOne · 16 mapsnearly even -2%ASTRAL · 3 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
70%33%
GenOne · 6 mapsedge GenOne +37%ASTRAL · 8 maps
MirageGenOne ban
50%58%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +8%ASTRAL · 8 maps
OverpassASTRAL ban
42%50%
GenOne · 8 mapsedge ASTRAL +8%ASTRAL · 0 maps
AnubisGenOne ban
57%71%
GenOne · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +14%ASTRAL · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Mirage
2. BanASTRAL remove Overpass
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickASTRAL take Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
6. BanGenOne remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (55% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
GenOne 31%ASTRAL 69%
The model gave 69% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
GenOne 71%ASTRAL 29%
The model gave 71% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
GenOne 48%ASTRAL 52%
The model gave 52% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 55%
Series resultGenOne 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3