European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BRUTE#74 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
68%67%
GenOne · 37 mapsnearly even +1%BRUTE · 8 maps
NukeBRUTE ban
62%40%
GenOne · 25 mapsedge GenOne +22%BRUTE · 6 maps
OverpassBRUTE pick
37%73%
GenOne · 15 mapsedge BRUTE +36%BRUTE · 7 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
46%50%
GenOne · 20 mapsnearly even -4%BRUTE · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%42%
GenOne · 10 mapsedge GenOne +15%BRUTE · 8 maps
AnubisGenOne ban
57%40%
GenOne · 10 mapsedge GenOne +17%BRUTE · 1 map
MirageGenOne ban
50%45%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge GenOne +5%BRUTE · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Mirage
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickBRUTE take Overpass
5. BanBRUTE remove Nuke
6. BanGenOne remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (57% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
GenOne 73%BRUTE 27%
The model gave 73% on GenOne — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
GenOne 62%BRUTE 38%
The model gave 62% on GenOne — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 70%
Series resultBRUTE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2