ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entropy#159 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
67%50%
GenOne · 38 mapsedge GenOne +17%Entropy · 4 maps
AncientGenOne ban
44%50%
GenOne · 21 mapedge Entropy +6%Entropy · 8 maps
NukeEntropy ban
60%40%
GenOne · 26 mapsedge GenOne +20%Entropy · 1 map
AnubisEntropy pick
57%50%
GenOne · 10 mapsedge GenOne +7%Entropy · 10 maps
OverpassEntropy ban
37%38%
GenOne · 15 mapsnearly even -1%Entropy · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
53%38%
GenOne · 11 mapsedge GenOne +15%Entropy · 4 maps
MirageGenOne ban
50%33%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge GenOne +17%Entropy · 11 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Mirage
2. BanEntropy remove Nuke
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickEntropy take Anubis
5. BanEntropy remove Overpass
6. BanGenOne remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (53% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:6
GenOne 47%Entropy 53%
The model gave 53% on Entropy — the map was taken by GenOne.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
GenOne 69%Entropy 31%
The model gave 69% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 74%
Series resultGenOne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2