European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
69%57%
GenOne · 31 mapedge GenOne +12%Virtus.pro · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
62%67%
GenOne · 22 mapsedge Virtus.pro +5%Virtus.pro · 2 maps
AncientVirtus.pro pick
45%63%
GenOne · 18 mapsedge Virtus.pro +18%Virtus.pro · 4 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
38%63%
GenOne · 12 mapsedge Virtus.pro +25%Virtus.pro · 4 maps
AnubisVirtus.pro ban
62%43%
GenOne · 9 mapsedge GenOne +19%Virtus.pro · 3 maps
InfernoVirtus.pro ban
62%50%
GenOne · 9 mapsedge GenOne +12%Virtus.pro · 0 maps
DefaultGenOne ban
33%40%
GenOne · 2 mapsedge Virtus.pro +7%Virtus.pro · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Overpass
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Inferno
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickVirtus.pro take Ancient
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Anubis
6. BanGenOne remove Default
DeciderNuke (62% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
GenOne 65%Virtus.pro 35%
The model gave 65% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Overpassprediction correct7:13
GenOne 24%Virtus.pro 76%
The model gave 76% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
GenOne 68%Virtus.pro 32%
The model gave 68% on GenOne — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 56%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3