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BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeGenOne pick
44%59%
Gentle Mates · 5 mapsedge GenOne +15%GenOne · 18 maps
Dust2Gentle Mates ban
50%72%
Gentle Mates · 0 mapsedge GenOne +22%GenOne · 21 map
AncientGenOne ban
67%40%
Gentle Mates · 5 mapsedge Gentle Mates +27%GenOne · 11 maps
InfernoGentle Mates pick
50%70%
Gentle Mates · 6 mapsedge GenOne +20%GenOne · 6 maps
OverpassGentle Mates ban
50%42%
Gentle Mates · 2 mapsedge Gentle Mates +8%GenOne · 8 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%56%
Gentle Mates · 1 mapnearly even +4%GenOne · 5 maps
MirageGenOne ban
44%50%
Gentle Mates · 5 mapsedge GenOne +6%GenOne · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGentle Mates remove Dust2
2. BanGenOne remove Mirage
3. PickGentle Mates take Inferno
4. PickGenOne take Nuke
5. BanGenOne remove Ancient
6. BanGentle Mates remove Overpass
DeciderAnubis (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
Gentle Mates 52%GenOne 48%
The model gave 52% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by GenOne.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
Gentle Mates 77%GenOne 23%
The model gave 77% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Infernoprediction missed13:0
Gentle Mates 30%GenOne 70%
The model gave 70% on GenOne — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Model check result
Model favoriteGentle Mates · 72%
Series resultGentle Mates 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3