NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
67%54%
Gentle Mates · 8 mapsedge Gentle Mates +13%Nuclear TigeRES · 9 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
38%55%
Gentle Mates · 9 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +17%Nuclear TigeRES · 7 maps
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
57%75%
Gentle Mates · 3 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +18%Nuclear TigeRES · 12 maps
InfernoGentle Mates pick
60%67%
Gentle Mates · 11 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +7%Nuclear TigeRES · 2 maps
Dust2Gentle Mates ban
50%50%
Gentle Mates · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Nuclear TigeRES · 12 maps
MirageGentle Mates ban
58%75%
Gentle Mates · 8 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +17%Nuclear TigeRES · 4 maps
OverpassNuclear TigeRES ban
57%50%
Gentle Mates · 3 mapsedge Gentle Mates +7%Nuclear TigeRES · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGentle Mates remove Dust2
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Overpass
3. PickGentle Mates take Inferno
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
6. BanGentle Mates remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (67% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
Gentle Mates 28%Nuclear TigeRES 72%
The model gave 72% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Gentle Mates 37%Nuclear TigeRES 63%
The model gave 63% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteGentle Mates · 61%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2