StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Walczaki#149 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
40%61%
Gentle Mates · 16 mapsedge Walczaki +21%Walczaki · 29 maps
AncientWalczaki ban
63%65%
Gentle Mates · 12 mapsnearly even -2%Walczaki · 19 maps
InfernoGentle Mates pick
56%65%
Gentle Mates · 14 mapsedge Walczaki +9%Walczaki · 13 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%64%
Gentle Mates · 4 mapsedge Walczaki +14%Walczaki · 18 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
50%67%
Gentle Mates · 10 mapsedge Walczaki +17%Walczaki · 11 maps
Dust2Gentle Mates ban
50%43%
Gentle Mates · 0 mapsedge Gentle Mates +7%Walczaki · 17 maps
DefaultGentle Mates ban
50%60%
Gentle Mates · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +10%Walczaki · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGentle Mates remove Dust2
2. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
3. PickGentle Mates take Inferno
4. PickWalczaki take Nuke
5. BanWalczaki remove Ancient
6. BanGentle Mates remove Default
DeciderAnubis (50% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
Gentle Mates 28%Walczaki 72%
The model gave 72% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Infernoprediction missed13:3
Gentle Mates 43%Walczaki 57%
The model gave 57% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Model check result
Model favoriteGentle Mates · 57%
Series resultGentle Mates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2