Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheGiant Pandas ban
50%40%
Giant Pandas · 0 mapsedge Giant Pandas +10%Aogiri · 1 map
Dust2Giant Pandas pick
40%50%
Giant Pandas · 1 mapedge Aogiri +10%Aogiri · 0 maps
MirageAogiri ban
50%40%
Giant Pandas · 0 mapsedge Giant Pandas +10%Aogiri · 1 map
NukeAogiri pick
40%50%
Giant Pandas · 1 mapedge Aogiri +10%Aogiri · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGiant Pandas remove Cache
2. BanAogiri remove Mirage
3. PickGiant Pandas take Dust2
4. PickAogiri take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Giant Pandas 57%Aogiri 43%
The model gave 57% on Giant Pandas — the map was taken by Giant Pandas.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Giant Pandas 53%Aogiri 47%
The model gave 53% on Giant Pandas — the map was taken by Aogiri.
Dust2prediction missed13:2
Giant Pandas 40%Aogiri 60%
The model gave 60% on Aogiri — the map was taken by Giant Pandas.
Model check result
Model favoriteGiant Pandas · 50%
Series resultGiant Pandas 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3