CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageGothic ban
43%40%
Gothic · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Lavked · 26 maps
Dust2Lavked pick
50%53%
Gothic · 2 mapsnearly even -3%Lavked · 26 maps
AncientLavked ban
50%42%
Gothic · 4 mapsedge Gothic +8%Lavked · 20 maps
NukeGothic ban
50%43%
Gothic · 0 mapsedge Gothic +7%Lavked · 19 maps
AnubisGothic pick
50%50%
Gothic · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Lavked · 12 maps
InfernoLavked ban
60%33%
Gothic · 1 mapedge Gothic +27%Lavked · 8 maps
Defaultpossible decider
33%29%
Gothic · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Lavked · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGothic remove Nuke
2. BanLavked remove Inferno
3. PickGothic take Anubis
4. PickLavked take Dust2
5. BanLavked remove Ancient
6. BanGothic remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (33% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Gothic 56%Lavked 44%
The model gave 56% on Gothic — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 53%
Series resultLavked 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1