BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Grêmio#201 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKeyd Stars pick
40%55%
Grêmio · 1 mapedge Keyd Stars +15%Keyd Stars · 16 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%50%
Grêmio · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Keyd Stars · 10 maps
MirageGrêmio ban
33%53%
Grêmio · 2 mapsedge Keyd Stars +20%Keyd Stars · 11 maps
NukeGrêmio pick
50%29%
Grêmio · 2 mapsedge Grêmio +21%Keyd Stars · 10 maps
InfernoKeyd Stars ban
57%33%
Grêmio · 3 mapsedge Grêmio +24%Keyd Stars · 2 maps
AnubisGrêmio ban
50%50%
Grêmio · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Keyd Stars · 4 maps
CacheKeyd Stars ban
43%40%
Grêmio · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Keyd Stars · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGrêmio remove Anubis
2. BanKeyd Stars remove Inferno
3. PickGrêmio take Nuke
4. PickKeyd Stars take Ancient
5. BanKeyd Stars remove Cache
6. BanGrêmio remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed4:13
Grêmio 75%Keyd Stars 25%
The model gave 75% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Grêmio 28%Keyd Stars 72%
The model gave 72% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 64%
Series resultKeyd Stars 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2