CCT 2026 South America Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Grêmio#201 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
METANOIA Wolves#210 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Grêmio ban
40%53%
Grêmio · 1 mapedge METANOIA Wolves +13%METANOIA Wolves · 11 maps
AncientMETANOIA Wolves pick
40%50%
Grêmio · 1 mapedge METANOIA Wolves +10%METANOIA Wolves · 8 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
Grêmio · 1 mapedge Grêmio +10%METANOIA Wolves · 6 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
60%38%
Grêmio · 1 mapedge Grêmio +22%METANOIA Wolves · 4 maps
MirageMETANOIA Wolves ban
40%25%
Grêmio · 1 mapedge Grêmio +15%METANOIA Wolves · 4 maps
NukeGrêmio ban
50%50%
Grêmio · 0 mapsnearly even +0%METANOIA Wolves · 4 maps
AnubisMETANOIA Wolves ban
50%29%
Grêmio · 0 mapsedge Grêmio +21%METANOIA Wolves · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGrêmio remove Dust2
2. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Mirage
3. PickGrêmio take Inferno
4. PickMETANOIA Wolves take Ancient
5. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Anubis
6. BanGrêmio remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Grêmio 34%METANOIA Wolves 66%
The model gave 66% on METANOIA Wolves — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
Grêmio 53%METANOIA Wolves 47%
The model gave 53% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Model check result
Model favoriteMETANOIA Wolves · 52%
Series resultGrêmio 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2