CCT 2026 South America Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Grêmio#201 in the world · win 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Grêmio ban
43%78%
Grêmio · 10 mapsedge Peladona +35%Peladona · 5 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
57%63%
Grêmio · 10 mapsedge Peladona +6%Peladona · 4 maps
MiragePeladona pick
36%50%
Grêmio · 7 mapsedge Peladona +14%Peladona · 2 maps
AncientGrêmio ban
40%40%
Grêmio · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Peladona · 1 map
CachePeladona ban
40%40%
Grêmio · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Peladona · 1 map
NukePeladona ban
40%50%
Grêmio · 6 mapsedge Peladona +10%Peladona · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
71%50%
Grêmio · 3 mapsedge Grêmio +21%Peladona · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGrêmio remove Dust2
2. BanPeladona remove Nuke
3. PickGrêmio take Inferno
4. PickPeladona take Mirage
5. BanPeladona remove Cache
6. BanGrêmio remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (71% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Grêmio 71%Peladona 29%
The model gave 71% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Model check result
Model favoriteGrêmio · 50%
Series resultGrêmio 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1