CCT 2026 South America Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Grêmio#201 in the world · win 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Grêmio ban
43%67%
Grêmio · 10 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +24%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 5 maps
CacheQUINTESSÊNCIA pick
40%75%
Grêmio · 6 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +35%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 8 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
53%50%
Grêmio · 11 mapsnearly even +3%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 2 maps
MirageGrêmio ban
36%60%
Grêmio · 7 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +24%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 6 maps
AncientQUINTESSÊNCIA ban
40%44%
Grêmio · 6 mapsnearly even -4%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 5 maps
NukeQUINTESSÊNCIA ban
36%60%
Grêmio · 7 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +24%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
75%60%
Grêmio · 4 mapsedge Grêmio +15%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGrêmio remove Mirage
2. BanQUINTESSÊNCIA remove Nuke
3. PickGrêmio take Inferno
4. PickQUINTESSÊNCIA take Cache
5. BanQUINTESSÊNCIA remove Ancient
6. BanGrêmio remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (75% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Grêmio 56%QUINTESSÊNCIA 44%
The model gave 56% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Cacheprediction correct17:19
Grêmio 16%QUINTESSÊNCIA 84%
The model gave 84% on QUINTESSÊNCIA — the map was taken by QUINTESSÊNCIA.
Dust2prediction missed16:13
Grêmio 27%QUINTESSÊNCIA 73%
The model gave 73% on QUINTESSÊNCIA — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Model check result
Model favoriteQUINTESSÊNCIA · 56%
Series resultGrêmio 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3