DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Arcade#198 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Arcade pick
46%50%
Ground Zero · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Arcade · 2 maps
NukeGround Zero pick
57%50%
Ground Zero · 10 mapsedge Ground Zero +7%Arcade · 0 maps
MirageGround Zero ban
54%50%
Ground Zero · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Arcade · 0 maps
AnubisArcade ban
33%50%
Ground Zero · 5 mapsedge Arcade +17%Arcade · 0 maps
InfernoArcade ban
50%50%
Ground Zero · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Arcade · 0 maps
CacheGround Zero ban
50%60%
Ground Zero · 0 mapsedge Arcade +10%Arcade · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGround Zero remove Cache
2. BanArcade remove Anubis
3. PickGround Zero take Nuke
4. PickArcade take Dust2
5. BanArcade remove Inferno
6. BanGround Zero remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Ground Zero 51%Arcade 49%
The model gave 51% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Arcade.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Ground Zero 49%Arcade 51%
The model gave 51% on Arcade — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
Ground Zero 57%Arcade 43%
The model gave 57% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 71%
Series resultGround Zero 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3