DFRAG Open Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMasked Regime ban
44%50%
Ground Zero · 5 mapsedge Masked Regime +6%Masked Regime · 0 maps
NukeMasked Regime ban
44%50%
Ground Zero · 5 mapsedge Masked Regime +6%Masked Regime · 0 maps
InfernoGround Zero ban
50%50%
Ground Zero · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Masked Regime · 0 maps
AnubisMasked Regime pick
43%50%
Ground Zero · 3 mapsedge Masked Regime +7%Masked Regime · 0 maps
Dust2Ground Zero pick
43%50%
Ground Zero · 3 mapsedge Masked Regime +7%Masked Regime · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGround Zero remove Inferno
2. BanMasked Regime remove Nuke
3. PickGround Zero take Dust2
4. PickMasked Regime take Anubis
5. BanMasked Regime remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Ground Zero 40%Masked Regime 60%
The model gave 60% on Masked Regime — the map was taken by Masked Regime.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
Ground Zero 47%Masked Regime 53%
The model gave 53% on Masked Regime — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Ground Zero 44%Masked Regime 56%
The model gave 56% on Masked Regime — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 65%
Series resultGround Zero 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3