DFRAG Invitational 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ground Zero#163 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OCOff Chops#131 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Off Chops pick
47%44%
Ground Zero · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Off Chops · 5 maps
InfernoGround Zero ban
65%43%
Ground Zero · 13 mapsedge Ground Zero +22%Off Chops · 3 maps
NukeGround Zero pick
60%67%
Ground Zero · 11 mapsedge Off Chops +7%Off Chops · 2 maps
AnubisOff Chops ban
55%40%
Ground Zero · 7 mapsedge Ground Zero +15%Off Chops · 1 map
AncientOff Chops ban
50%40%
Ground Zero · 6 mapsedge Ground Zero +10%Off Chops · 1 map
CacheGround Zero ban
50%60%
Ground Zero · 0 mapsedge Off Chops +10%Off Chops · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
Ground Zero · 1 mapedge Ground Zero +10%Off Chops · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGround Zero remove Cache
2. BanOff Chops remove Anubis
3. PickGround Zero take Nuke
4. PickOff Chops take Dust2
5. BanOff Chops remove Ancient
6. BanGround Zero remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Ground Zero 49%Off Chops 51%
The model gave 51% on Off Chops — the map was taken by Off Chops.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
Ground Zero 67%Off Chops 33%
The model gave 67% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Off Chops.
Model check result
Model favoriteOff Chops · 59%
Series resultOff Chops 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2