DFRAG Open Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Time Waves#263 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Ground Zero pick
44%50%
Ground Zero · 12 mapsedge Time Waves +6%Time Waves · 0 maps
NukeTime Waves ban
64%50%
Ground Zero · 10 mapsedge Ground Zero +14%Time Waves · 0 maps
AnubisTime Waves pick
45%50%
Ground Zero · 7 mapsedge Time Waves +5%Time Waves · 0 maps
MirageTime Waves ban
45%50%
Ground Zero · 7 mapsedge Time Waves +5%Time Waves · 0 maps
InfernoGround Zero ban
29%50%
Ground Zero · 3 mapsedge Time Waves +21%Time Waves · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGround Zero remove Inferno
2. BanTime Waves remove Nuke
3. PickGround Zero take Dust2
4. PickTime Waves take Anubis
5. BanTime Waves remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed19:17
Ground Zero 26%Time Waves 74%
The model gave 74% on Time Waves — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
Ground Zero 67%Time Waves 33%
The model gave 67% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 74%
Series resultGround Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2