FiRe Last Chance 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionHHacha#210 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BBTHloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Hacha ban
50%40%
Hacha · 2 mapsedge Hacha +10%BTH · 1 map
MirageBTH ban
67%40%
Hacha · 2 mapsedge Hacha +27%BTH · 1 map
AncientHacha pick
67%50%
Hacha · 2 mapsedge Hacha +17%BTH · 0 maps
DefaultBTH pick
33%50%
Hacha · 2 mapsedge BTH +17%BTH · 0 maps
InfernoHacha ban
33%50%
Hacha · 2 mapsedge BTH +17%BTH · 0 maps
NukeBTH ban
50%50%
Hacha · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BTH · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHacha remove Inferno
2. BanBTH remove Nuke
3. PickHacha take Ancient
4. PickBTH take Default
5. BanBTH remove Mirage
6. BanHacha remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:2
Hacha 53%BTH 47%
The model gave 53% on Hacha — the map was taken by Hacha.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Hacha 57%BTH 43%
The model gave 57% on Hacha — the map was taken by Hacha.
Model check result
Model favoriteHacha · 54%
Series resultHacha 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2