ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeHashiras pick
50%60%
Hashiras · 2 mapsedge Lavked +10%Lavked · 1 map
Dust2Lavked ban
60%60%
Hashiras · 1 mapnearly even +0%Lavked · 1 map
InfernoLavked ban
40%60%
Hashiras · 1 mapedge Lavked +20%Lavked · 1 map
MirageHashiras ban
50%67%
Hashiras · 0 mapsedge Lavked +17%Lavked · 2 maps
AncientLavked pick
50%60%
Hashiras · 0 mapsedge Lavked +10%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHashiras remove Mirage
2. BanLavked remove Inferno
3. PickHashiras take Nuke
4. PickLavked take Ancient
5. BanLavked remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
Hashiras 33%Lavked 67%
The model gave 67% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
Hashiras 37%Lavked 63%
The model gave 63% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 63%
Series resultLavked 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2