ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Haunted House#236 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Vitalem Aerem#180 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Vitalem Aerem pick
40%56%
Haunted House · 1 mapedge Vitalem Aerem +16%Vitalem Aerem · 5 maps
NukeVitalem Aerem ban
33%38%
Haunted House · 2 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +5%Vitalem Aerem · 4 maps
AncientHaunted House pick
50%57%
Haunted House · 0 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +7%Vitalem Aerem · 3 maps
InfernoHaunted House ban
50%43%
Haunted House · 0 mapsedge Haunted House +7%Vitalem Aerem · 3 maps
MirageVitalem Aerem ban
50%50%
Haunted House · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Vitalem Aerem · 0 maps
AnubisHaunted House ban
50%60%
Haunted House · 0 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +10%Vitalem Aerem · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHaunted House remove Inferno
2. BanVitalem Aerem remove Mirage
3. PickHaunted House take Ancient
4. PickVitalem Aerem take Dust2
5. BanVitalem Aerem remove Nuke
6. BanHaunted House remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Haunted House 53%Vitalem Aerem 47%
The model gave 53% on Haunted House — the map was taken by Vitalem Aerem.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitalem Aerem · 57%
Series resultVitalem Aerem 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1