Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
HAVENs#331 in the world · loss 7:13series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 7:13
INFURITY#115 in the world · win 13:7The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisINFURITY ban
50%43%
HAVENs · 0 mapsedge HAVENs +7%INFURITY · 3 maps
InfernoHAVENs ban
50%57%
HAVENs · 0 mapsedge INFURITY +7%INFURITY · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%43%
HAVENs · 0 mapsedge HAVENs +7%INFURITY · 3 maps
AncientHAVENs ban
50%67%
HAVENs · 0 mapsedge INFURITY +17%INFURITY · 2 maps
CacheINFURITY ban
50%40%
HAVENs · 0 mapsedge HAVENs +10%INFURITY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHAVENs remove Ancient
2. BanINFURITY remove Cache
3. BanHAVENs remove Inferno
4. BanINFURITY remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
HAVENs 33%INFURITY 67%
The model gave 67% on INFURITY — the map was taken by INFURITY.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFURITY · 72%
Series resultINFURITY 7:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1