Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
HAVENs#331 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 6:13
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HAVENs ban
50%62%
HAVENs · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +12%Inner Circle Academy · 30 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%50%
HAVENs · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +10%Inner Circle Academy · 24 maps
AnubisHAVENs ban
50%61%
HAVENs · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +11%Inner Circle Academy · 24 maps
NukeHAVENs ban
50%50%
HAVENs · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle Academy · 18 maps
MirageInner Circle Academy ban
40%53%
HAVENs · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +13%Inner Circle Academy · 15 maps
CacheInner Circle Academy ban
50%46%
HAVENs · 0 mapsnearly even +4%Inner Circle Academy · 9 maps
DefaultInner Circle Academy ban
50%50%
HAVENs · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle Academy · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHAVENs remove Nuke
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Cache
3. BanHAVENs remove Dust2
4. BanInner Circle Academy remove Mirage
5. BanHAVENs remove Anubis
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Default
DeciderAncient (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
HAVENs 38%Inner Circle Academy 62%
The model gave 62% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 76%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 6:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1