BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
HAVU#107 in the world · win 1:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HAVU ban
30%50%
HAVU · 6 mapsedge CHAOS +20%CHAOS · 0 maps
NukeCHAOS ban
50%50%
HAVU · 4 mapsnearly even +0%CHAOS · 0 maps
DefaultCHAOS ban
60%33%
HAVU · 1 mapedge HAVU +27%CHAOS · 2 maps
MirageHAVU ban
43%50%
HAVU · 3 mapsedge CHAOS +7%CHAOS · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%50%
HAVU · 2 mapsnearly even +0%CHAOS · 0 maps
InfernoHAVU ban
40%50%
HAVU · 1 mapedge CHAOS +10%CHAOS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHAVU remove Inferno
2. BanCHAOS remove Default
3. BanHAVU remove Mirage
4. BanCHAOS remove Nuke
5. BanHAVU remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
HAVU 75%CHAOS 25%
The model gave 75% on HAVU — the map was taken by HAVU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHAVU · 73%
Series resultHAVU 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1