ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
HAVU#116 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeHAVU pick
72%50%
HAVU · 14 mapsedge HAVU +22%Dark Moon · 0 maps
MirageDark Moon pick
54%50%
HAVU · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Dark Moon · 4 maps
Dust2HAVU ban
36%57%
HAVU · 7 mapsedge Dark Moon +21%Dark Moon · 3 maps
AncientDark Moon ban
50%33%
HAVU · 4 mapsedge HAVU +17%Dark Moon · 2 maps
CacheHAVU ban
33%50%
HAVU · 5 mapsedge Dark Moon +17%Dark Moon · 0 maps
InfernoDark Moon ban
57%40%
HAVU · 3 mapsedge HAVU +17%Dark Moon · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
HAVU · 2 mapsedge Dark Moon +10%Dark Moon · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHAVU remove Dust2
2. BanDark Moon remove Inferno
3. PickHAVU take Nuke
4. PickDark Moon take Mirage
5. BanDark Moon remove Ancient
6. BanHAVU remove Cache
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
HAVU 28%Dark Moon 72%
The model gave 72% on Dark Moon — the map was taken by Dark Moon.
Infernoprediction missed9:13
HAVU 69%Dark Moon 31%
The model gave 69% on HAVU — the map was taken by Dark Moon.
Model check result
Model favoriteHAVU · 67%
Series resultDark Moon 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2