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Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HAVU#107 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Inner Circle Academy pick
38%61%
HAVU · 9 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +23%Inner Circle Academy · 29 maps
NukeHAVU pick
74%55%
HAVU · 15 mapsedge HAVU +19%Inner Circle Academy · 16 maps
AncientHAVU ban
50%50%
HAVU · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle Academy · 24 maps
Miragepossible decider
53%47%
HAVU · 11 mapsedge HAVU +6%Inner Circle Academy · 13 maps
AnubisHAVU ban
40%60%
HAVU · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +20%Inner Circle Academy · 21 map
CacheInner Circle Academy ban
33%42%
HAVU · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +9%Inner Circle Academy · 8 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
44%43%
HAVU · 5 mapsnearly even +1%Inner Circle Academy · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHAVU remove Anubis
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickHAVU take Nuke
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Dust2
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Cache
6. BanHAVU remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (53% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
HAVU 47%Inner Circle Academy 53%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
HAVU 72%Inner Circle Academy 28%
The model gave 72% on HAVU — the map was taken by HAVU.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
HAVU 29%Inner Circle Academy 71%
The model gave 71% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteHAVU · 50%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3