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European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC Academy#100 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
GenOne#95 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
25%70%
HEROIC Academy · 4 mapsedge GenOne +45%GenOne · 19 maps
NukeHEROIC Academy ban
29%57%
HEROIC Academy · 3 mapsedge GenOne +28%GenOne · 17 maps
Ancientpossible decider
38%43%
HEROIC Academy · 4 mapsedge GenOne +5%GenOne · 10 maps
OverpassHEROIC Academy pick
50%42%
HEROIC Academy · 2 mapsedge HEROIC Academy +8%GenOne · 8 maps
AnubisGenOne ban
44%57%
HEROIC Academy · 5 mapsedge GenOne +13%GenOne · 3 maps
InfernoHEROIC Academy ban
33%70%
HEROIC Academy · 2 mapsedge GenOne +37%GenOne · 6 maps
MirageGenOne ban
42%50%
HEROIC Academy · 8 mapsedge GenOne +8%GenOne · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC Academy remove Nuke
2. BanGenOne remove Mirage
3. PickHEROIC Academy take Overpass
4. PickGenOne take Dust2
5. BanGenOne remove Anubis
6. BanHEROIC Academy remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (38% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
HEROIC Academy 11%GenOne 89%
The model gave 89% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
HEROIC Academy 47%GenOne 53%
The model gave 53% on GenOne — the map was taken by HEROIC Academy.
Anubisprediction correct4:13
HEROIC Academy 38%GenOne 62%
The model gave 63% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 63%
Series resultGenOne 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3