IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#25 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Eternal Fire#47 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEternal Fire pick
62%60%
HEROIC · 9 mapsnearly even +2%Eternal Fire · 11 maps
InfernoHEROIC pick
64%55%
HEROIC · 10 mapsedge HEROIC +9%Eternal Fire · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
70%53%
HEROIC · 6 mapsedge HEROIC +17%Eternal Fire · 11 maps
Dust2Eternal Fire ban
67%50%
HEROIC · 8 mapsedge HEROIC +17%Eternal Fire · 8 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
33%50%
HEROIC · 5 mapsedge Eternal Fire +17%Eternal Fire · 8 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
50%33%
HEROIC · 8 mapsedge HEROIC +17%Eternal Fire · 2 maps
DefaultHEROIC ban
60%57%
HEROIC · 1 mapnearly even +3%Eternal Fire · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Cache
2. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
3. PickHEROIC take Inferno
4. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
5. BanEternal Fire remove Dust2
6. BanHEROIC remove Default
DeciderMirage (70% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:10
HEROIC 31%Eternal Fire 69%
The model gave 69% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
HEROIC 69%Eternal Fire 31%
The model gave 69% on HEROIC — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
HEROIC 60%Eternal Fire 40%
The model gave 60% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 60%
Series resultHEROIC 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3