Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#26 in the world · win 2:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
fnatic#36 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientHEROIC ban
61%72%
HEROIC · 14 mapsedge fnatic +11%fnatic · 14 maps
Dust2possible decider
68%50%
HEROIC · 15 mapsedge HEROIC +18%fnatic · 8 maps
Cachefnatic pick
54%75%
HEROIC · 9 mapsedge fnatic +21%fnatic · 12 maps
InfernoHEROIC pick
69%67%
HEROIC · 12 mapsnearly even +2%fnatic · 5 maps
Miragefnatic ban
64%36%
HEROIC · 10 mapsedge HEROIC +28%fnatic · 7 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%79%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge fnatic +29%fnatic · 10 maps
Nukefnatic ban
64%50%
HEROIC · 10 mapsedge HEROIC +14%fnatic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickHEROIC take Inferno
4. Pickfnatic take Cache
5. Banfnatic remove Mirage
6. BanHEROIC remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (68% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
HEROIC 26%fnatic 74%
The model gave 74% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
HEROIC 78%fnatic 22%
The model gave 78% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
HEROIC 52%fnatic 48%
The model gave 52% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 54%
Series resultHEROIC 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3