PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#26 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeHEROIC pick
60%50%
HEROIC · 1 mapedge HEROIC +10%Gentle Mates · 4 maps
AncientHEROIC ban
50%63%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge Gentle Mates +13%Gentle Mates · 4 maps
InfernoGentle Mates pick
40%57%
HEROIC · 1 mapedge Gentle Mates +17%Gentle Mates · 3 maps
MirageGentle Mates ban
40%43%
HEROIC · 1 mapnearly even -3%Gentle Mates · 3 maps
Dust2Gentle Mates ban
60%50%
HEROIC · 1 mapedge HEROIC +10%Gentle Mates · 0 maps
OverpassHEROIC ban
50%40%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge HEROIC +10%Gentle Mates · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Overpass
2. BanGentle Mates remove Dust2
3. PickHEROIC take Nuke
4. PickGentle Mates take Inferno
5. BanGentle Mates remove Mirage
6. BanHEROIC remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
HEROIC 31%Gentle Mates 69%
The model gave 69% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
HEROIC 50%Gentle Mates 50%
The model gave 50% on HEROIC — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 59%
Series resultGentle Mates 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2