IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#25 in the world · win 2:0series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
magic#18 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmagic pick
58%67%
HEROIC · 8 mapsedge magic +9%magic · 11 maps
Dust2magic ban
67%38%
HEROIC · 8 mapsedge HEROIC +29%magic · 4 maps
InfernoHEROIC pick
67%60%
HEROIC · 11 mapsedge HEROIC +7%magic · 1 map
CacheHEROIC ban
33%70%
HEROIC · 5 mapsedge magic +37%magic · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
70%56%
HEROIC · 6 mapsedge HEROIC +14%magic · 5 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%50%
HEROIC · 8 mapsnearly even +0%magic · 0 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%50%
HEROIC · 0 mapsnearly even +0%magic · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Cache
2. Banmagic remove Nuke
3. PickHEROIC take Inferno
4. Pickmagic take Ancient
5. Banmagic remove Dust2
6. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (70% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
HEROIC 79%magic 21%
The model gave 79% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
HEROIC 38%magic 62%
The model gave 62% on magic — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 67%
Series resultHEROIC 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2