Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#26 in the world · win 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
REMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HEROIC pick
57%50%
HEROIC · 10 mapsedge HEROIC +7%REM · 0 maps
NukeREM pick
43%50%
HEROIC · 10 mapsedge REM +7%REM · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
46%50%
HEROIC · 9 mapsnearly even -4%REM · 0 maps
MirageHEROIC ban
50%50%
HEROIC · 8 mapsnearly even +0%REM · 0 maps
AncientREM ban
63%50%
HEROIC · 4 mapsedge HEROIC +13%REM · 0 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
29%50%
HEROIC · 3 mapsedge REM +21%REM · 0 maps
OverpassREM ban
60%50%
HEROIC · 1 mapedge HEROIC +10%REM · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Cache
2. BanREM remove Ancient
3. PickHEROIC take Dust2
4. PickREM take Nuke
5. BanREM remove Overpass
6. BanHEROIC remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (46% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:2
HEROIC 49%REM 51%
The model gave 51% on REM — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Ancientprediction correct13:0
HEROIC 60%REM 40%
The model gave 60% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 88%
Series resultHEROIC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2