IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
HEROIC#30 in the world · loss 10:13series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 10:13
Sharks#51 in the world · win 13:10The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
50%64%
HEROIC · 2 mapsedge Sharks +14%Sharks · 7 maps
InfernoHEROIC ban
25%67%
HEROIC · 4 mapsedge Sharks +42%Sharks · 2 maps
MirageSharks ban
25%33%
HEROIC · 4 mapsedge Sharks +8%Sharks · 2 maps
AncientHEROIC ban
50%56%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge Sharks +6%Sharks · 5 maps
Dust2Sharks ban
57%50%
HEROIC · 3 mapsedge HEROIC +7%Sharks · 0 maps
OverpassSharks ban
60%33%
HEROIC · 1 mapedge HEROIC +27%Sharks · 2 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%60%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge Sharks +10%Sharks · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
2. BanSharks remove Dust2
3. BanHEROIC remove Ancient
4. BanSharks remove Overpass
5. BanHEROIC remove Inferno
6. BanSharks remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (50% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
HEROIC 36%Sharks 64%
The model gave 64% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 56%
Series resultSharks 10:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1