NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Honvéd pick
63%69%
Honvéd · 23 mapsedge Bebop +6%Bebop · 9 maps
MirageBebop pick
46%50%
Honvéd · 20 mapsnearly even -4%Bebop · 12 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
56%46%
Honvéd · 5 mapsedge Honvéd +10%Bebop · 9 maps
AncientBebop ban
53%40%
Honvéd · 11 mapsedge Honvéd +13%Bebop · 1 map
AnubisBebop ban
63%33%
Honvéd · 4 mapsedge Honvéd +30%Bebop · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
63%43%
Honvéd · 4 mapsedge Honvéd +20%Bebop · 3 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
25%57%
Honvéd · 4 mapsedge Bebop +32%Bebop · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
2. BanBebop remove Ancient
3. PickHonvéd take Dust2
4. PickBebop take Mirage
5. BanBebop remove Anubis
6. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (63% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Honvéd 40%Bebop 60%
The model gave 60% on Bebop — the map was taken by Bebop.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
Honvéd 49%Bebop 51%
The model gave 51% on Bebop — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
Honvéd 50%Bebop 50%
The model gave 50% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Bebop.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 58%
Series resultBebop 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3