Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ENCE#112 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageHonvéd pick
50%53%
Honvéd · 30 mapsnearly even -3%ENCE · 15 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
55%50%
Honvéd · 36 mapsedge Honvéd +5%ENCE · 2 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
33%64%
Honvéd · 14 mapsedge ENCE +31%ENCE · 7 maps
AncientENCE ban
53%22%
Honvéd · 15 mapsedge Honvéd +31%ENCE · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
40%50%
Honvéd · 11 mapsedge ENCE +10%ENCE · 8 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
45%50%
Honvéd · 7 mapsedge ENCE +5%ENCE · 8 maps
NukeENCE pick
56%43%
Honvéd · 5 mapsedge Honvéd +13%ENCE · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
2. BanENCE remove Dust2
3. PickHonvéd take Mirage
4. PickENCE take Nuke
5. BanENCE remove Ancient
6. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
DeciderCache (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
Honvéd 20%ENCE 80%
The model gave 80% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Honvéd 58%ENCE 42%
The model gave 58% on Honvéd — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 52%
Series resultENCE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2