European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OlyBet#225 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2OlyBet pick
44%56%
Honvéd · 5 mapsedge OlyBet +12%OlyBet · 5 maps
MirageHonvéd pick
45%67%
Honvéd · 7 mapsedge OlyBet +22%OlyBet · 2 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
50%44%
Honvéd · 0 mapsedge Honvéd +6%OlyBet · 5 maps
AncientHonvéd ban
50%67%
Honvéd · 2 mapsedge OlyBet +17%OlyBet · 2 maps
Overpasspossible decider
29%50%
Honvéd · 3 mapsedge OlyBet +21%OlyBet · 0 maps
InfernoOlyBet ban
50%33%
Honvéd · 0 mapsedge Honvéd +17%OlyBet · 2 maps
AnubisOlyBet ban
60%50%
Honvéd · 1 mapedge Honvéd +10%OlyBet · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
2. BanOlyBet remove Anubis
3. PickHonvéd take Mirage
4. PickOlyBet take Dust2
5. BanOlyBet remove Inferno
6. BanHonvéd remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (29% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed2:13
Honvéd 69%OlyBet 31%
The model gave 69% on Honvéd — the map was taken by OlyBet.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Honvéd 36%OlyBet 64%
The model gave 64% on OlyBet — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Honvéd 29%OlyBet 71%
The model gave 71% on OlyBet — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 61%
Series resultHonvéd 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3